Watershed Condition Statement – Flood Outlook

March 14, 2025

Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook
North Bay District

Friday March 14, 2025 11:00am

The Ministry of Natural Resources – North Bay District, is advising area residents that a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook bulletin is in effect in the district until Friday, March 21, 2025 at 12:00pm.

Residents in the North Bay District area should keep a close watch on conditions and exercise caution around lakes, rivers and streams. The warm temperatures and rainfall forecasted for Saturday and Sunday are likely to impact low lying areas which a history of flooding. Shoreline and ice conditions are also expected to be impacted. Please alert and/or monitor any children and pets under your care to possible dangers and supervise their activities around waterbodies.
The ministry is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions. Further updates will be issued as appropriate.

Description of Weather System
A major low-pressure system will be moving through the province from Friday to Monday, bringing warm temperatures and rain to most of the province. All areas of the district could receive minimal rainfall overnight Friday before precipitation amounts increase over the weekend. Starting Friday, temperatures are forecast to be well above the freezing mark until Sunday evening when they will drop below freezing which will decrease the impacts of this weather event.
Northern reaches of the district could receive up to 30mm of rain from Saturday morning until Sunday evening with the possibility of most rain expected to fall on Saturday. Southern reaches of the district could receive up to 40mm of rain over the same period, again with the possibility of most rain expected to fall on Saturday.

Description of Current Conditions
Significant snowpack remains across the district. Lakes and rivers in the northern reaches of the district are still frozen while those in the southern reaches are starting to see the beginning of open water in limited areas. Water levels and flows across the district are currently low and it’s expected that they will respond accordingly to this weekend’s rainfall event combined with temperatures remaining well above zero until Sunday night.

The mild weather observed over the last few days allowed for a reduction in the depth of snow due to melting, compaction and sublimation. It’s estimated that the current density of the snowpack is increasing because of recent rainfall and warming temperatures. As a result, the snowpack has a limited capacity to absorb rainfall and runoff is expected to occur. It’s expected that shorelines will become increasingly unstable and ice conditions will deteriorate significantly.
Rainfall and snowmelt could result in potential flooding in low lying areas with a history of flooding. Residents in these areas are encouraged to monitor conditions and prepare accordingly.

DEFINITIONS
• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that high flows, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for such users as boaters, anglers and swimmers but flooding is not expected.
• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high winds or other conditions
• SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that along the Great Lakes shorelines high water, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous but flooding is not expected.

• SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding along the Great Lakes shorelines based on weather and lake conditions, and water safety information.

• FLOOD WATCH: potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities.
• FLOOD WARNING: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities.
LEARN MORE
• Surface Water Monitoring Centre public webpage www.ontario.ca/page/surface-water-monitoring-centre
• Environment Canada bulletins: www. weather.gc.ca
• A close watch on local conditions and weather forecasts from Environment Canada is recommended.

Shannon Page, North Bay District Office, 705-493-0632 ontario.ca/mnrf
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